Labarai - Ta yaya rage darajar riba ta asusun tarayya na 25, watanni tara bayan haka, zai shafi kasuwar ƙarfe ta duniya?

A ranar 18 ga Satumba, Babban Bankin Tarayya ya sanar da rage darajar riba ta farko tun daga shekarar 2025. Kwamitin Kasuwannin Buɗe Ido na Tarayya (FOMC) ya yanke shawarar rage darajar riba da maki 25, wanda hakan ya rage yawan kudin da ake bukata na asusun tarayya zuwa tsakanin kashi 4% zuwa 4.25%. Wannan shawarar ta yi daidai da tsammanin kasuwa. Wannan ita ce karo na farko da Babban Bankin ya rage darajar riba a cikin watanni tara tun daga watan Disamba na bara. Tsakanin Satumba da Disamba na bara, Babban Bankin Tarayya ya rage darajar riba da jimillar maki 100 a cikin tarurruka uku, sannan ya ci gaba da rike darajar riba a tarurruka biyar a jere.

Shugaban Asusun Tarayya, Powell, ya bayyana a wani taron manema labarai cewa wannan rage darajar kuɗi shawara ce ta kula da haɗari kuma cewa gyara ƙimar riba cikin sauri ba lallai ba ne. Wannan yana nuna cewa Bankin Tarayya ba zai shiga cikin zagayen rage darajar kuɗi mai ɗorewa ba, wanda ke sanyaya ra'ayin kasuwa.

Masu sharhi sun nuna cewa rage darajar ma'auni 25 na Fed za a iya ɗaukarsa a matsayin "ragewa", ma'ana yana fitar da ƙarin kuɗi don ƙarfafa ayyukan tattalin arziki, tallafawa kasuwar aiki, da kuma hana haɗarin fuskantar ƙalubale ga tattalin arzikin Amurka.

Kasuwar na sa ran Babban Bankin Tarayya zai ci gaba da rage darajar riba a wannan shekarar.

Idan aka kwatanta da rage darajar kuɗin da kanta, alamun manufofin da taron Babban Bankin Tarayya na watan Satumba ya bayar sun fi muhimmanci, kuma kasuwa tana mai da hankali sosai kan saurin rage darajar kuɗin Fed a nan gaba.

Masu sharhi sun nuna cewa tasirin harajin zai kai kololuwa a cikin kwata na huɗu. Bugu da ƙari, kasuwar ma'aikata ta Amurka ta kasance mai rauni, inda ake sa ran adadin rashin aikin yi zai ci gaba da hauhawa zuwa 4.5%. Idan bayanan albashi na waɗanda ba na gona ba na watan Oktoba suka ci gaba da faɗuwa ƙasa da 100,000, akwai yiwuwar ƙarin rage darajar kuɗi a watan Disamba. Saboda haka, ana sa ran Fed zai rage ƙimar riba da maki 25 a watan Oktoba da Disamba, wanda ya kawo jimillar maki 75, sau uku a shekara.

A yau, kasuwar gaba ta ƙarfe ta China ta ga riba fiye da asara, inda matsakaicin farashin kasuwa ya tashi a ko'ina. Wannan ya haɗa dasandar katako, H-biyoyin, ƙarfena'urori masu lanƙwasa, sandunan ƙarfe, bututun ƙarfe da farantin ƙarfe.

Bisa ga ra'ayoyin da ke sama, Royal Steel Group tana ba abokan ciniki shawara:

1. Nan da nan a rufe farashin oda na ɗan gajeren lokaci: Yi amfani da damar da ke akwai idan farashin musayar kuɗi na yanzu bai nuna cikakken raguwar farashin da ake tsammani ba, sannan ka sanya hannu kan kwangilolin farashi mai ƙayyadadden farashi tare da masu samar da kayayyaki. Rufe farashin yanzu yana hana hauhawar farashin sayayya saboda canjin farashin canji daga baya.

2. Kula da saurin rage darajar riba daga baya:Tsarin digo na Fed ya nuna wani raguwar darajar maki 50 kafin ƙarshen 2025. Idan bayanan aikin yi na Amurka suka ci gaba da tabarbarewa, wannan na iya haifar da raguwar darajar kuɗi ba zato ba tsammani, wanda zai ƙara matsin lamba ga darajar RMB. Ana ba wa abokan ciniki shawara su sa ido sosai kan kayan aikin CME Fed Watch kuma su daidaita tsare-tsaren siye cikin sauƙi.